TAYWATCH THE TAY REGION RESEARCH OBSERVATORY CENTRE FOR PLANNING RESEARCH SCHOOL OF TOWN AND REGIONAL PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF DUNDEE

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CONTENTS
Introduction
Population
Labour Market
Housing Market
About the Research Centres
Strategic Briefing - THE NEW COUNCILS

TAYWATCH is the Bulletin of the Tay Region Research Observatory, which is based in the Centre for Planning Research at the University of Dundee. It has been established to provide a focus for research and commentary on the social, economic and physical development of the natural region of the Tay. We take this to include the current administrative areas of Tayside Regional Council, Angus, Dundee and Perth & Kinross Districts and North East Fife District Council.

Our aim in establishing the Research Observatory is to provide a base for maintaining a strategic perspective on the key issues which affect the development of the region and the prosperity of its inhabitants. We aim to achieve this by providing a statistical resource, promoting and undertaking research and promoting better communication between the different agencies, interest groups, disciplines and professions active in the region.

We will therefore aim to distribute the TAYWATCH Bulletin as widely as our resources will allow. Initially this will be three times a year. This first issue of the Bulletin has been distributed to University departments, local authorities, Health Boards, Scottish Homes, Local Enterprise Companies, voluntary organisations, professional firms and major companies in the region.

The Bulletin will provide a strategic overview of the key economic, social and planning indicators affecting the region. This first Bulletin provides baseline indicators relating to the labour market and housing market. These touch on issues of wider social policy significance. These questions will be addressed in future issues which will focus on specific themes of interest and current relevance. More detailed and in-depth analysis will be provided by the TAY ANNUAL REVIEW which we will publish in December of each year. We will seek contributions from academics, practitioners, companies and policy-makers for the first issue of the TAY ANNUAL REVIEW in December 1996.

It is no accident that we are launching this first issue of TAYWATCH at the time of change associated with local government reorganisation. We are convinced of the need to retain a strategic perspective on industrial, community and environmental change in the Tay region. We offer this Bulletin and the services of the Observatory in the hope that this may act as a focus for such activity and provide a link between the academic, professional, policy and entrepreneurial communities in our region.

W Edgar, G Finlayson and M G Lloyd

Figure 1 - Population 1971-1994

The long-term pattern of population change in the region is now well established and understood. Within the context of a relatively stable regional population, there has been a significant redistribution of population within the districts of the Tay region. The loss of population from Dundee has been balanced by growing population in Angus, and Perth and Kinross and North East Fife in each Census since 1971. It is too early to know if the mid-year estimates since 1991 reflect a real trend in the stemming of Dundee's population haemorrhage.

• The reasons for this broad pattern of population change in the region are complex and form the basis for the indicators reported elsewhere in this bulletin and in future issues.

Figure 4 - Household Type: % Change 1981-91 A=lone pensioner, B=lone non-pensioner, C=lone parent, D=2 adults(or more) with children, E=2 adults(or more) without children

Even with a declining population the region shows an increase in household numbers. This increase is mainly due to the large increase in lone non-pensioner and lone parent household types - though, with the exception of N. E. Fife, not as large an increase as for Scotland as a whole. Dundee and Angus follow the Scottish trend of a decline in families with dependent children. Perth & Kinross and N E Fife show very little change in the proportion of such households. The smallest increase is in households without children, though there is only a neglible increase in Dundee.

1 The figures used to calculate percentages are rounded to the nearest 100 to preserve confidentiality

• In terms of the composition of employment, Tayside's economy is similar to that of Scotland, with 73% of employment in manufacturing, distribution and other services compared to 66% for Scotland. Tayside is marginally more dependent on service sector industries.
• Angus's biggest employment sector is manufacturing (28%), while that for Perth and Kinrosss is distribution, hotels/catering (31%); both Dundee and N E Fife have other services (33% and 36% respectively) as the biggest employment sector.
• The energy and water supply industry is the smallest employer in Scotland. This is reflected throughout the Tay region, except in the urban area of Dundee where agriculture, forestry and fishing employs less than 1%.

Figure 6 - Unadjusted Unemployment Rates2 in Tayside, Scotland, UK

Unemployment in Tayside in January 1996 was 16006, representing 8.6% of the workforce. This is an increase of 842 on December 1995. In the same month 8.3% of the workforce in the UK and Scotland were unemployed. This is an increase of 82269 for the UK and 11234 for Scotland compared to the previous month. The Tayside unemployment rate has fallen by 2.79% over the 12 months to January 1996. In Scotland this fall is 7.56% and the UK, 7.70%, for the same 12 month period.

2 Unemployment rates express the number of unemployed claimants as a percentage of the estimated workforce (includes employees in employment, self-employed, armed forces, participants on government work-related schemes, and unemployed).

Figure 7 - Unadjusted Unemployment Rates1 in the Tay Region

Within Tayside, Dundee has the highest unemployment rate (10.62%) and the lowest was in Perth & Kinross (6.31%). The rate in North East Fife was 6.32% Across the region unemployment rose between December and January. The largest increase took place in Angus (7.89%) and the smallest in Perth & Kinross (4.18%). Over the 12 months to January 1996 unemployment has fallen in each of the 4 districts.

1 Unemployment rates express the number of unemployed claimants as a percentage of the economically active population (taken from the 1991 Population Census).
Economically active includes employees, self-employed, participants on a government training scheme, unemployed and the temporarily sick.
2 unemployed for more than 12 months
3 under the age of 25
4 The denominator for the 3 districts is all economically active population taken from 1991 Census; for regional and national levels it is the estimated workforce

1 Unemployment rates express the number of unemployed claimants as a percentage of the economically active population (taken from the 1991 Population Census).
Economically active includes employees, self-employed, participants on a government training scheme, unemployed and the temporarily sick.
2 unemployed for more than 12 months
3 under the age of 25
4 The denominator for the 3 districts is all economically active population taken from 1991 Census; for regional and national levels it is the estimated workforce

• In January a total of 5005 people in Tayside had been unemployed for more than 12 months. This accounts for 31.3% of the jobless total.
• Across the region, long-term unemployment is highest in Dundee (35.5% of the total), and lowest in Perth & Kinross (24.0%).
• Long-term unemployment has fallen over the last year. The fall ranged from 7.44% in Dundee to 2.63% in Perth & Kinross.

1 Unemployment rates express the number of unemployed claimants as a percentage of the economically active population (taken from the 1991 Population Census).
Economically active includes employees, self-employed, participants on a government training scheme, unemployed and the temporarily sick.
2 unemployed for more than 12 months
3 under the age of 25
4 The denominator for the 3 districts is all economically active population taken from 1991 Census; for regional and national levels it is the estimated workforce

• In January a total of 4522 people under 25 were unemployed in Tayside, 541 in North East Fife. This is a fall of 3.11% and 2.17% respectively over the last 12 months.
• Young adults now account for 28.3% of the jobless total in Tayside, 26.9% in North East Fife.
• Perth & Kinross has seen the largest fall, 5.83%, Dundee the smallest, 1.33%.

• In common with the rest of Scotland, just over half of all households in Tayside are owner-occupiers. In North East Fife this figure is much higher (64.6%).
• A third of households in Tayside live in public sector dwellings with the largest concentrations in the urban areas - 42.5% in Dundee compared to 24.7% in Perth and Kinross. North East Fife has by far the lowest proportion living in the public sector, 20.79%.
• Compared to the rest of Scotland a larger proportion (approx. 10% across the Tay region) of all households live in housing association or private rented dwellings.
• As we may expect, it is mainly rural households who live in tied accommodation and although the total number is small (4652 in Tayside) this may be significant in some rural settlements.

Figure 12 - Basic Median Rent by Region: housing associations comparison of quarterly and annual figures

Rents overall in Scotland went up by an average of 4.2% from £27.90 in 1993-94 to £29.06 in 1994-95. Rents in Tayside fell slightly over the year, while those in Fife rose higher than the Scottish average. Rents in Tayside and Fife are in the highest quartile of Scottish housing association rents. These differences need to be explained by reference to factors such as income, building type and subsidy levels.

• Almost 80% of supported accommodation is for four main community care client groups.
• Over 40% of accommodation in Perth & Kinross is for frail older people, while 75% of accommodation in N E Fife is for people with a learning disability.
• Dundee provides a broader mix of accommodation including among the "other groups" abused women and accommodation for multiple groups.
• Nearly 60% of provision in Angus is concentrated on two main client groups - people with a learning disability and young persons.